Conference USA Basketball - #1 Memphis vs. #13 Bradley Preview

This should be one of the best games of the NCAA Tournament. The top-seeded Memphis Tigers facing off against Final Four contender Pittsbur—wait, who’s in the Sweet Sixteen? Bradley? You mean 13th-seeded Bradley? Yes, that’s right. The #13 Bradley Braves upset Kansas and Pitt in somewhat of a convincing fashion over the weekend to earn a spot in the regional semi-finals.

First of all, don’t even try to tell me that you had them in your bracket because we all know you didn’t. Second of all, for all you Memphis fans that are excited that you didn’t have to play the Jayhawks or Panthers, simmer your enthusiasm for a few minutes. Bradley is going to be a load for the Tigers to handle as they have the athletes to compete. It is going to be an excellent game between two teams that like to play aggressive defense and who have versatile offenses.

Memphis faltered a little down the stretch of the season and did not get a favorable draw. However, they are playing their best basketball in a couple of months, and the Tigers might be the new favorite in the Oakland region. In the first round, they scored nearly 100 points in dispatching Oral Roberts, a game in which some people thought we would see the first #16 over a #1 ever. The second round brought another easy win--this time over Bucknell. Memphis is using a balanced offense--no player has scored over 19 points in either game--and a pressure defense--they have forced an average of 16 turnovers per game--to get victories.

Memphis is the most athletic team in the country and is also one of the toughest teams to defend. The Tigers are unbelievable in the open-court, are long on defense, and create match-up problems at both ends of the floor. They have five freshmen in their first nine, to go with three sophomores and a senior. This is a young, talented team. Memphis is active at both ends of the floor. They lead Conference USA in scoring and field-goal percentage, as well as rebounds and assists. Moreover, they are in the Top 10 nationally in both blocks and steals.

Rodney Carney (17.4 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.3 spg, 39% 3pt) had been the best sixth man to come along in years until he was inserted into the starting lineup over a month ago. He is possibly the most athletic player in the nation, and is nearly impossible to guard on offense. He is a very good stand-still three-point shooter and loves to get out in transition. In addition, Carney is a lock-down defender on smaller players that are mainly perimeter scorers. Darius Washington (13.3 ppg, 3.3 apg, 1.2 spg) is a very good playmaker and one-on-one player who can create shots for himself and his teammates. He is also a solid three-point shooter. Washington was hampered by a right thigh injury earlier this season, but—as demonstrated by his minutes played—he seems to be recovered. However, he tends to focus too much on scoring and he forgets to distribute the ball at times. He has also struggled somewhat down the stretch with his point output. Also starting on the perimeter is freshman Antonio Anderson (7.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.6 spg). He came off the bench for the majority of the second-half of the season, but since being inserted back into the starting lineup, he has contributed in a big way. He is a good scorer and passer who can shoot the three with efficiency. Anderson is also a solid rebounder and defender. In the two NCAA games so far, he has shot 5 of 7 from three and is averaging 11.5 points per game. Providing depth in the backcourt are freshman Chris Douglas-Roberts (8.5 ppg, 3.3 rpg) and sophomore Andre Allen (4.2 ppg, 3.0 apg, 1.4 spg). Douglas-Roberts basically splits minutes with Anderson on the wing. He is long and athletic and finds ways to score near the basket. He has the ability to contribute in several aspects of the game. As usual, in the NCAA Tournament, Douglas-Roberts has been a decent player in a variety of ways. Allen has been a major asset for John Calipari and the Tigers. When Washington is unable to play, he steps in and performs admirably. He is a good defender and can take his man off the dribble and then distribute to the scorers. His passing skills and defensive ability mean a seamless transition when Washington is out of the game. In the two NCAA games so far, he is averaging 9.5 points, 4 assists, and 2.5 steals per game. Both of these guys have played big-time roles thus far in the NCAA Tournament, coming off the bench and performing admirably.

Up front, freshman Shawne Williams (13.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.4 spg, 1.3 bpg) leads the way. He is one of the best freshmen in the country and is also one of the most versatile. He is an all-around player who scores on one end and collects rebounds, blocks, and steals on the other. Williams has shown the ability to take over a game in crunch time as well as the ability to play excellent defense (witness his job on Adam Morrison). He is very difficult to defend one-on-one due to his quickness and athletic ability. However, he tends to take too many three-pointers, something he needs to get away from. Williams has been a decent scorer in the NCAA Tournament, but his all-around game has suffered. His battle against Marcellus Sommerville is going to be something to watch. Starting down low is senior post man Joey Dorsey (7.0 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.9 bpg, 65% fg). He is the Tigers’ leading rebounder and shot-blocker. In addition, he is efficient from the floor and can get a couple of baskets per game in the paint. However, he tends to get in foul trouble—something that has already put him on the bench for key stretches in the Big Dance. One option off the bench is backup center Kareem Cooper (4.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg). He provides a big body down low and can rebound. He had a 13-point, 13-rebound performance off the bench earlier this season. Also coming off the pine is Robert Dozier (5.7 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 1.2 bpg). The freshman is a lanky big man who has a lot of potential. He is an excellent rebounder who has really come on strong in the past month or so. When he produces quality numbers, it makes Memphis even more difficult to beat. He had 9 points and 8 rebounds in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Dorsey, Cooper, and Dozier are going to have their hands full with Patrick O’ Bryant on the interior. Dorsey and Cooper are not tall enough to defend him, while Dozier might be too lanky. It is going to be a nightmare of a match-up.

Bradley made a late-surge to end the season and get an at-large bid—apparently one of the last ones, given their seeding. The lowest-seeded team in the Sweet Sixteen right now, the Braves have had two wins in a row in which they jumped out to an early lead and controlled the game the entire team. In the first round, they shot 52% from long-range and forced 18 turnovers to defeat Kansas. In the second round, the Braves held Aaron Gray to 12 points and 4 rebounds to take down Pitt.

They have shown that they don’t back down from an opponent, and will play pretty much any style of basketball. Pittsburgh likes a physical style of game, while Kansas would rather play in transition. In both of those games, Bradley adapted to the situation and came out victorious. The Braves are an athletic team with a lot of talent that can play with any team in the country. They play very good defensively, both in the half-court and full-court, and like to disrupt a team's offensive sets.

Bradley’s success starts with their defense, which starts with their backcourt. Tony Bennett (10.7 ppg, 3.5 apg, 2.8 apg, 1.9 spg) is an excellent guard who can score going to the basket. He is also the best perimeter defender on the team, and is a high-energy player. However, he has been up and down all season. He had an 11-point, 10-rebound, 5-assist performance against Southern Illinois, but followed that up with a combined 10 points and 5 rebounds in the next two games. When he is playing well, the Braves are that much more difficult to defend. His NCAA Tournament has not been overly successful, as he is only averaging 5 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. Point guard Daniel Ruffin (7.7 ppg, 5.2 apg, 1.6 spg) has been a solid point guard all season long. He loves to get the ball out in transition and push the offense up the court quickly. Ruffin can score if called upon, but he is more of a distributor. He is also a very good on-ball defender and does not turn the ball over often. He has had 15 points and 11 assists in the first two games of the NCAA Tournament. When Ruffin and Bennett are getting out in transition and feeding off of each other, the Braves are at their best. Also seeing playing time on the perimeter is J.J. Tauai (1.8 ppg, 0.9 spg), who has been starting lately. He does not contribute much in the box score, but Bradley just simply plays better with him on the court. He takes good care of the ball and hardly ever turns it over. Tauai had 8 points, 3 rebounds, and 3 steals in their first-round game against Kansas. Coming off the bench, Will Franklin (4.9 ppg, 2.9 apg, 1.1 spg) is a quick point guard who likes to push the ball. He sees extensive minutes off the bench and contributes in several categories. Franklin is a good on-ball defender who is also a very solid distributor. He has stepped his game up in the NCAA Tournament, including a 14-point, 6-assist performance against Kansas.

Up front is where Bradley usually wins games. Patrick O’ Bryant (13.6 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 2.9 bpg) has been one of the most dominant players in the NCAA Tournament. After missing the first eight games of the season, O'Bryant put the nation on notice with a combined 50 points and 39 rebounds in his first three games back. He played well throughout the rest of the season, although he was inconsistent at times. However, people began discussing him as a possible difference-maker once the Braves received an at-large bid. He had a solid game against Kansas in the first round, but had his break-out performance against Aaron Gray in the second round. From the opening tip, he dominated the interior, going for 28 points and 7 rebounds. Already getting some attention from NBA scouts, his stock has skyrocketed, and he may have played himself into a first-round pick. Marcellus Sommerville (15.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg) has been somewhat overshadowed recently by the explosion of O’Bryant, but he is a multi-talented forward who can carry the offense at times. He is a versatile, combo forward that can score both inside and outside. Sommerville is more efficient going to the basket, but tends to hang out on the perimeter too often. However, he is a very tough one-on-one player because of his versatile scoring ability and athleticism. He sometimes forces shots and tries to take over the game, but with O'Bryant becoming a star, he has adapted well to becoming the second option on the offensive end. He has been an excellent player in the NCAA Tournament, averaging 19.5 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. Lawrence Wright (10.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.0 spg) has also played a key role in the success of Bradley in the NCAA Tournament so far. He is very good going to the basket and is a high-energy player who is instant offense off the bench. Wright is extremely athletic and can dunk with the best of them. Against Pittsburgh, he had 14 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals, helping lead the Braves to the Sweet Sixteen. Zach Andrews (5.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg) also sees minutes off the bench. He is very athletic and likes to get out and run the floor. Additionally, he is a very good defender and rebounder. His numbers have dipped recently, but has shown flashes of his potential throughout the season, including a 19-point, 15-rebound performance against Western Kentucky.

This match-up is going to be an up and down game between two athletic teams that have used their quickness and depth to get to the Sweet Sixteen. There are several keys to the game. First of all, Memphis is going to have to find a way to slow down the unstoppable force that is Bradley’s Patrick O’Bryant. He dominated Aaron Gray, who many thought would have the edge over O’Bryant due to his size. Joey Dorsey is not tall enough, while Kareem Cooper is too slow and not agile enough. Moreover, Robert Dozier is too skinny and won’t be able to handle O’Bryant when his back is to the basket. Several big men have taken advantage of Memphis’ lack of a true center en route to huge games. They can’t allow O’Bryant to have another break-out game. Another crucial match-up will be Marcellus Sommerville vs. Shawne Williams. Both players are terrific offensive performers who can score both inside and outside. They are versatile and athletic and usually pose match-up problems for their opponents. It will be interesting to see who gets the edge in this battle. For Memphis, they can’t turn the ball over against Bradley’s in-your-face perimeter defense, which was Pittsburgh’s falling point. They need to move the ball around for good shots and not settle for contested, rushed jumpers. On the other side, Bradley has to find someone to guard Rodney Carney. He is too athletic for J.J. Tauai and too big for any of the Braves’ guards. Lawrence Wright might be the best match-up for Carney. Both are extremely athletic and love to dunk. The only problem for Wright, though, is that Carney is terrific and sneaking out in transition to get easy baskets. Bradley’s perimeter defenders also have to stop Memphis’ host of wings and guards from penetrating into the lane and kicking out for wide-open three-pointers. Even though the Tigers’ shooters are inconsistent, Bradley can’t allow them the opportunity to catch fire and shoot the Braves out of the gym.

It will come down to Memphis’ advantage in athleticism and depth. Additionally, Memphis has Rodney Carney and Bradley doesn’t. I think the Memphis post players will figure out some way to slow Patrick O’ Bryant down, while Shawne Williams will do a good job on Marcellus Sommerville. If Memphis gets their transition and run-and-gun game going, O’Bryant will be taken out of the game as a result of the lack of a half-court, slow-down contest. That would be the Tigers’ best bet in order to win this game.

Prediction: Memphis 78, Bradley 73

Looking Ahead

The other regional semi-final pits #2 UCLA against #3 Gonzaga in one of the most anticipated match-ups of the Sweet Sixteen. UCLA plays excellent defense and is efficient on offense. Aaron Afflalo and Jordan Farmar form one of the best backcourts in the country. Afflalo is an excellent defender and might be even more dangerous on offense, while Farmar is an outstanding passer at the point. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute has been the best freshman in the conference, and is a very good rebounder. Darren Collison is a developing scorer at the guard position, and Cedric Bozeman is a versatile wing who can do many things. Inside, Ryan Hollins leads the way but Alfred Aboya also contributes. Neither is a big-time producer in either scoring and rebounding, but they provide a big body and some solid defense. Gonzaga has been considered “overrated” all season, but have demonstrated that they deserved their #3 seed by playing very well in defeating Xavier and Indiana. Adam Morrison is one of the top two players in the country, and has been an unbelievable player all season. He is likely to win the national scoring title, as well. J.P. Batista is an excellent post player who can dominate a game and carry his team to victory, while Derek Raivio is a solid three-point shooter who plays defense and distributes the ball well. Sean Mallon is a good role player who leads a deep group of players who contribute but don't get much publicity.

I think that UCLA will defeat the Bulldogs because of the Bruins’ guard play. Farmar and Afflalo are outstanding guards, while Bozeman will be able to slow down Morrison somewhat. Even though the Zags were able to pick up the slack after Morrison’s sub-par performance against Indiana, they can’t beat UCLA without a big game from their main man. UCLA moves on.

If Memphis defeats Bradley and UCLA beats Gonzaga, both teams will face-off in a rematch of a Preseason NIT semi-final. Memphis won that game by eight points in a contest they controlled from beginning to end. The second battle between the two teams would be a classic. UCLA has better guards than Memphis, but they don’t have an answer for the forward duo of Rodney Carney and Shawne Williams. Neither team is overly dominant down low, but Memphis would get the edge in the post. Williams vs. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute would be a great match-up of two of the top freshmen in the country. I think that Carney and Douglas-Roberts, with their long arms and athleticism, would be able to slow down Afflalo. If Carney is able to get his game going against Afflalo, Memphis will get the win. If Farmar and Afflalo control the game right away and don’t allow the Tigers to run, UCLA will win. My money is on Memphis in what could be a last-possession game.