Conference USA Basketball Game of the Week & Other Observations

Look around the country. Bubble teams all over the place are playing some of the top teams in the country in their final couple of games of the season. In other words, some of these teams on the fence are getting pretty lucky as their scheduling is providing them with a chance to get a big win and move into the bracket. It is no different in Conference USA. With only one lock (Memphis), the league is looking to get at least one more bid into the Field of 65. The team with the best chance of getting an at-large invitation is UAB. Guess where Memphis is headed this week? You got it—UAB. If the Blazers get a win against the Tigers at home, they pretty much lock up a bid to the Big Dance. If they lose, it could be “Hello NIT” for Mike Anderson and company.

UAB has been winning the games they are supposed to, but has not really defeated any high-quality teams that they could hang their collective hats on. The Blazers are currently 20-5 overall and 10-2 in the conference. However, they don’t own a Top 50 win, and their best road win is over Nebraska. That isn’t the most attractive profile to the committee. On the other hand, they have beaten Colonial contenders Old Dominion and Virginia Commonwealth, and fellow bubble teams Nebraska and Houston. The Blazers have won four in a row and 16 of their last 18. UAB, ranked 52nd in the RPI, has the 71st most-efficient offense and the 82nd most-efficient defense in the country, according to Ken Pomeroy.

Memphis is in the running for a #1 seed, and would probably get one if the season ended today. But, as we all know, it doesn’t. The Tigers are 26-2 overall and 12-0 within Conference USA. The level of competition that has helped them to an undefeated conference season is also what is keeping them from locking up a top seed. However, Memphis does have one of the better non-conference profiles in the country. They own wins over Gonzaga, Tennessee, Cincinnati, UCLA, and Alabama, and have only lost to Texas and Duke. The Tigers have won 15 in a row, but if they lose again they might drop to a #2 seed even though I do not see either of those happening. Memphis, ranked 6th in the RPI, is the 26th-most efficient offensive team and the 14th-most efficient defensive team in the country.

UAB, when their press is forcing a bevy of turnovers and they have momentum, can beat any team they play due to their athleticism and style of play. They like to get up and down the floor, rack up steals, and score in transition. When forced into a half-court game, they struggle at times. They rank 2nd in C-USA in scoring, mainly as a result of the fact that they lead the league in assists and are 2nd in the country in steals. Their success starts on the perimeter. Cardell “Squeaky” Johnson (7.6 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 6.3 apg, 2.9 spg 52% 3pt) may be the best point guard in the conference, as a result of his passing ability and his defense. Moreover, his quickness and athleticism jump-starts the Blazers’ transition offense. While not much of a scorer, Johnson can shoot the three and penetrate. His partner in the backcourt, Marvett McDonald (15.3 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.6 spg, 37% 3pt), is coming off of a 39-point performance in his last game. He is averaging 22.5 points per game in his last four contests. McDonald has reached double-figures in all by 3 games so far this season. He is not just a scorer, though—he is a solid defender and distributor. Derrick Broom (3.8 ppg) is the third starter on the perimeter. He is a solid three-point shooter and has shown the potential to be a good scorer. However, Broom does not produce much, in terms of statistical values. On the other hand, the depth that the Blazers have on the perimeter means that he doesn’t have to be a big-time scorer or play starter-quality minutes. UAB can bring a variety of players off the bench. Paul Delaney III (7.9 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.2 spg) leads the way. A very good scorer, he is very athletic and can get into the lane and finish. Delaney is not much of an outside shooter, but his slashing ability and defensive prowess earns him plenty of minutes. Wen Mukubu (10.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.3 spg, 39% 3pt) started for much of the season, but has moved to the bench in the last month. He is another athletic player on the wing. Mukubu is very solid on the defensive end due to his length and quickness and can also score on the other end. Richard Jones (5.5 ppg) has seen a spike in his minutes the past two games. He is a solid penetrator and finisher, but is not a very good three-point shooter. Maurice Gibbs (2.4 ppg) also gets minutes in the backcourt. Up front, UAB is not as deep but just as athletic. Frank Holmes (7.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.0 bpg) is the leading rebounder for the Blazers. He is a solid inside player and his athleticism gives him the ability to rebound and score over bigger opponents. He is also a very good shot-blocker. Lawrence Kinnard (6.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg) has come on strong in the month of February. He is a versatile player that can slash to the basket as well hit the jumper. Kinnard fits the Blazers’ system perfectly. The main man off the bench is Brandon Tobias (4.6 ppg, 2.2 rpg). He provides excellent defense and solid rebounding. His strength down gives him the ability to hold his own against bigger and taller foes. Tobias is also a decent inside scorer.

Memphis is the most athletic team in the country and is also one of the toughest teams to defend. The Tigers are unbelievable in the open-court, are long on defense, and create match-up problems at both ends of the floor. They have five freshmen in their first nine, to go with three sophomores and a senior. This is a young, talented team. Memphis is active at both ends of the floor. They lead the conference in scoring and field-goal percentage, as well as rebounds and assists. Moreover, they are in the Top 10 nationally in both blocks and steals. Rodney Carney (18.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.4 spg, 40% 3pt) had been the best sixth man to come along in years until he was inserted into the starting lineup last month. He is the most athletic player in the nation, and is nearly impossible to guard on offense. He is a very good stand-still three-point shooter and loves to get out in transition. In addition, Carney is a lock-down defender (remember the job he did on J.J. Redick?). Darius Washington (13.8 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.2 spg) is a very good playmaker and one-on-one player who can create shots for himself and his teammates. He is also a solid three-point shooter. Washington was hampered by a right thigh injury earlier this season, but—as demonstrated by his minutes played—he seems to be recovered. Also starting on the perimeter is freshman Chris Douglas-Roberts (9.0 ppg, 3.5 rpg). He is long and athletic and finds ways to score near the basket. He has the ability to contribute in several aspects of the game. Providing depth in the backcourt are freshman Antonio Anderson (7.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.6 spg) and senior Andre Allen (4.3 ppg, 3.0 apg, 1.4 spg). Anderson basically splits time with Douglas-Roberts on the wing. He is a good scorer and passer who can shoot the three with efficiency. Anderson is also a solid rebounder and defender. Allen has been a major asset for John Calipari and the Tigers. When Washington is unable to play, he steps in and performs admirably. He is a good defender and can take his man off the dribble and then distribute to the scorers. His passing skills and defensive ability mean a seamless transition when Washington is out of the game. Up front, freshman Shawne Williams (13.3 ppg, 6.4 rpg, 2.1 apg, 1.5 spg, 1.3 bpg) leads the way. He is one of the best freshmen in the country and is also one of the most versatile. He is an all-around player who scores on one end and collects rebounds, blocks, and steals on the other. Williams has shown the ability to take over a game in crunch time as well as the ability to play excellent defense (witness his job on Adam Morrison). He is very difficult to defend one-on-one due to his quickness and athletic ability. However, he tends to take too many three-pointers, something he needs to get away from. Starting down low is sophomore post man Joey Dorsey (6.8 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 2.2 bpg, 65% fg). He is the Tigers’ leading rebounder and shot-blocker. In addition, he is efficient from the floor and can get a couple of baskets per game in the paint. One option off the bench is backup center Kareem Cooper (5.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg). He provides a big body down low and can rebound. He had a 13-point, 13-rebound performance off the bench earlier this season. Also coming off the pine is Robert Dozier (5.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.2 bpg). The freshman is a lanky big man who has a lot of potential. He is an excellent rebounder who has really come on strong in the past month or so. When he produces quality numbers, it makes Memphis even more difficult to beat.

This game should be a high-scoring, entertaining contest that could have both teams in the 70’s or 80’s. The importance of this game has been discussed on television, on the internet, and basically everywhere college basketball is talked about. UAB needs a win to cement its spot in the NCAA Tournament, while Memphis is fighting to lock up a #1 seed. The key to this game is going to be turnovers and who forces more. Both teams like to pressure the ball right from the opening tip-off, and creating steals and deflections are imperative to the up-tempo style of play that both teams employ. Therefore, it could come down to the point guard play. Darius Washington and Squeaky Johnson are both very good point guards, but Washington tends to play out of control at times, while Johnson has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.7. If Washington starts turning the ball over against the Blazers’ press, Memphis could be in trouble. Marvett McDonald is going to be harassed throughout the game by the Tigers’ bevy of athletes on the wings. If McDonald doesn’t get it going, the Blazers are much less dangerous on offense. Neither team has much in the paint, but Memphis has more talent down low. Joey Dorsey and Robert Dozier are both very good rebounders and should own the glass for the Tigers. Dorsey had 12 points and 16 rebounds the last time these two teams matched up. The difference is this game is going to be Rodney Carney and Shawne Williams. UAB simply doesn’t have an answer for either of them as they combined for 29 points and 17 rebounds in the first meeting. Expect more of the same. Another thing to expect from the first game? A Memphis win.

Prediction: Memphis 82, UAB 78

Other Conference USA Notes and Observations

• So much for Houston’s at-large chances. Their loss at UTEP over the weekend killed any potential they had for a bid to the NCAA Tournament. The defeat dropped them to 8-4 in Conference USA, fourth in the conference. Even if the Cougars win out, which isn’t likely (they have to face Memphis on the road), they simply will not have the resume to garner serious consideration for an at-large invitation.

• While we are at it, let’s kiss UTEP’s at-large chances goodbye as well. Even though they did beat Houston over the weekend to give them slim hope, I can’t see them getting a bid. Games against Tulsa and Central Florida are only going to weaken their RPI, and they only have quality non-conference wins over…um…um…no one? Sorry UTEP, but even a 12-2 C-USA record is not getting you into the Big Dance.

• What happened to Rice over the past week? Okay, they lost at UTEP, which is acceptable, but then they got blown out at home by Central Florida. Just when I thought it was clear that the Owls were the fifth best team in the conference, they go and lose a game like that.

• The obvious fifth-best team is now Central Florida. Why? Because they are the only team outside of the “Big Four” that has a record of .500. How did they lose to SMU last week and Southern Miss the week before, and then go on the road and dominate Rice? They are such an interesting team. Some people call that inconsistency.

• The only player averaging a double-double in the conference is Corey Rouse of East Carolina. Moreover, he’s not just beating up on the lower-tier teams in the league—actually, no one is lower than East Carolina, but I will continue. He had 20 points and 12 rebounds against Memphis, 18 and 13 vs. UAB, and 17 boards against Houston. By the way, does anyone remember that the Pirates defeated a likely NCAA team in UNC-Wilmington?

• Surprisingly, Cardell Johnson is the leading three-point shooter in the conference. For someone so known for his quickness, active defense, and his passing ability, it’s interesting to see that he is the best long-range gunner in the league.

• Southern Mississippi’s leading rebounder is averaging 4.3 per game, while their leading assist man is going for 2.0 per game. Am I the only one who finds that horrendous? There are at least 20-25 players in the league that can reach those numbers by about halftime. Not surprisingly, Southern Miss is 11th in C-USA in rebounding and 12th in assists.

• There might not be a better all-around player who contributes in so many areas than UTEP’s Jason Williams. With John Tofi out, Williams had 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 4 assists in a win over Houston. Some of the more impressive lines he has had this season include: 14-10-8 at Texas Tech, 10-10-4 at SMU, 24 and 8 vs. Pacific, 22 and 10 vs. East Carolina. He has 6 double-doubles this season.

• Morris Almond has seven 30-point games this season, including a streak earlier this season of four in a row.

• Tulsa has had only five 20-point individual performances this season, and no one has scored more than 24 in a game.