Conference USA Basketball Game of the Week & Other Observations

For the first time all season, Conference USA is actually getting some coverage from the college basketball media—and it’s not all negative. Instead of the usual “Memphis is being brought down by its league”, we are getting a lot of “Will Conference USA get two bids? There are 3 teams with a chance to sneak in.” For a conference that many people have looked down upon the entire season, they will take whatever positive press they can get. Heading into the final week of the season, Memphis is a solid lock and is a likely #1 seed. UAB, UTEP, and Houston are all on the bubble, with UAB the leader right now out of the pack. Coincidentally, an elimination game will occur this weekend when Houston visits UTEP. Guess what our game of the week is? No, not East Carolina and Tulane. It’s Houston at UTEP.

Houston has been extremely inconsistent all season long. They had early-season wins over Arizona and LSU, but also lost to teams like Central Florida and Rice. The Cougars are 17-6 overall and 8-3 in the conference, currently riding an eight-game winning streak. Other than beating UTEP at home, though, the best win in that run was over Texas A&M Corpus-Christi. No, not the Aggies. Corpus-Christi, the team that lost to Utah Valley State a week before Houston came to town. In other words, the recent streak may not be as impressive as it seems on paper. The Cougars, ranked 56th in the RPI, are the 127th-most efficient offensive team in the country, and the 37th-most efficient defensive team, according to Ken Pomeroy.

UTEP has flown under the radar pretty much the entire season. That is for good reason, though. During the non-conference season, the Miners lost to New Mexico and Lousiana-Lafayette, while their best win was over Pacific. Since the conference portion of the year began, UTEP has been nearly unbeatable. They are 15-7 overall and 9-2 in the conference, and have won 10 of their last 12. Their most impressive win to date was their thrashing of UAB a couple of weeks ago. Against Memphis on Wednesday, they hung in the game but never really posed a threat to the Tigers. The Miners, ranked 76th in the RPI, have the 165th-most efficient offense and the 17th-most efficient defense in the country.

Houston can be a very difficult team to beat on certain days, but also looks extremely vulnerable on other days. It all starts with their backcourt, which is one of the best in the conference. Oliver Lafayette (15.7 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.3 spg) has had some ups and downs throughout the course of the season, but is an excellent all-around guard. Lafayette is a very good scorer and shooter who is also a terrific defender. He looks like he is back to his non-conference ways—which means a lot of points but also a lot of bad shots and forced jumpers. At the other guard spot, Lanny Smith (11.9 ppg, 5.7 apg, 1.7 spg) is one of the more underrated point men in the country. He is an excellent passer and distributor who can shoot the three and also score off penetration. Smith has increased his scoring numbers over the past six games or so. Brian Latham (7.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.3 apg, 2.2 spg) also starts on the perimeter. He is a solid all-around player who does everything fairly well. He is an excellent defender who is also a good passer and rebounder. However, he has not scored in double-figures in over a month, although he had 6 points, 9 rebounds, and 10 assists in a recent game vs. Tulsa. Chris Lawson (3.8 ppg) sees spot minutes in the backcourt, and is a solid contributor. When given the time, he has demonstrated the ability to score. Up front, several players are counted on to produce night in and night out. Ramon Dyer (12.4 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 1.7 spg, 1.0 bpg) is the team’s best frontcourt player. He has developed into a go-to-guy, and has not scored in single-digits since the calendar turned to 2006. His athleticism and lithe frame allows him to shoot the three-ball effectively and be a very good defender, both in terms of blocks and steals. Jahmar Thorpe (9.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.3 spg) is another undersized frontcourt player that uses his athleticism to enable him to play against bigger players. Thorpe is a good inside scorer and rebounder as well as a solid defender. He has averaged 12.5 points per game over his last four contests. Sergio de Randamie (3.0 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 1.0 spg) has seen his minutes drop drastically since the beginning of conference play. He now only sees spot minutes off the bench. On the other hand, Sam Anderson (5.0 ppg, 3.3 rpg) has seen his minutes skyrocket since Conference USA play started. He is a decent scorer and board man who is capable of big games as the sixth man. Darrius Brannon (2.3 ppg, 1.9 rpg) also sees minutes on the frontline, but does not contribute much in the way of stats.

UTEP is a defense-oriented group that does not have the athletes that Houston has, but has the personnel necessary to beat teams that are more talented. However, John Tofi (13.9 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.0 spg, 1.2 bpg) will not play and as a result the Miners will take a huge hit. Tofi injured his knee against Memphis, and it is unclear if he will play again this season according to the UTEP athletics Web site. When healthy, Tofi is one of the best low-post players in the league who simply overpowers defenders. Once he went down with the injury, UTEP was not the same team against Memphis. He and fellow frontcourt player Jason Williams (13.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.5 spg) form one of the better combos in the league. Williams has stepped up his play lately, and might be the key to this Miners team. When he scores in double-figures, UTEP is 14-3. When he doesn’t, they are only 3-4. He is an athletic and versatile swingman that can play both inside and outside. Off the bench, frontcourt players Brent Murphy (1.9 ppg), Will Kimble (4.2 ppg, 3.8 rpg), and Maurice Thomas (3.8 ppg, 2.6 rpg) all see minutes. None of them are highly productive, but they will have to step up with Tofi out against Houston. Kimble is capable of providing points and rebounds down low, while Murphy and Thomas both see spot minutes and don’t produce on a consistent basis. On the perimeter, the trio of Edgar Moreno (9.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.1 apg, 2.1 spg), Stefon Jackson (7.9 ppg, 2.4 rpg), and Kevin Henderson (7.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.8 spg) are all solid players who can produce in a variety of ways. Moreno is usually a consistent source of scoring, but only had 4 points—and 4 turnovers—against Memphis. However, he is normally a solid point-producer and distributor. Jackson is not likely to have a breakout game offensively, as he has only scored in double figures in 4 games this season. However, one of those games was vs. Memphis, in which he “went off” for 12 points. He is very talented and looks like he could develop into an excellent player. Jackson is a decent rebounder for his size and can defend. Henderson might be the best all-around player on the perimeter. He is a good scorer, capable of having a big night, as well as a solid rebounder and an excellent passer. He scored 13 against Memphis. Miguel Ayala (10.5 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 2.0 apg) was injured earlier in the season, and when he came back, his starting spot was gone. In his two games back from injury, Ayala has come off the bench to produce fairly well. He gives the Miners a starter-quality player on the pine.

This game could go a long way towards determining who gets an at-large bid out of Conference USA and who goes to the NIT. The loser is pretty much gone from contention, while the winner boosts its Top 100 record and RPI. As far as the game goes, it’s all about John Tofi for UTEP. Since he can’t go, UTEP’s size advantage down low won’t be as important. Dyer vs. Jason Williams is going to be an exciting matchup between two athletic forwards that can do a myriad of things on the court. In the backcourt, the poor-shooting tandem of Oliver Lafayette and Lanny Smith take on a guard trio that, while not spectacular, gets the job done and does not lose the game for the Miners. If Lafayette has a big scoring day and does not force shots, Houston will benefit greatly. UTEP likes to slow the ball down and play tough defense, while Houston would rather get out and run and get the score up in the mid-70s. However, even Memphis at home—and UTEP without Tofi—could not manage more than 66 points against the Miners. That does not bode well for the Cougars. If Tofi were playing I'd pick UTEP to definitely win. But even without Tofi UTEP will still get the win based on their defense and determination. Adios Houston from NCAA Tournament consideration.

Prediction: UTEP 68, Houston 60

Other Conference USA Notes and Observations

• The highly-anticipated matchup between UTEP and Memphis was long way from living up to its expectations. With a chance to represent for Conference USA, the two teams put to sleep a national audience and basically showed that Conference USA was a one-bid league. The game lacked any sort of excitement—Memphis did not even get to show off their run and gun game, and UTEP didn’t get to show off John Tofi.
• UAB picked up a couple more easy wins this week against inferior competition. However, that has been the case since conference play started. The Blazers beat up on the lower portion of the league, and then lose when a quality team appears on their schedule. In order to get a bid to the Tournament, UAB needs to demonstrate that they can beat good, NCAA Tournament-caliber teams. East Carolina and Southern Mississippi aren’t going to be in the Field of 65.
• Houston’s season comes down to their final three games. They face UTEP in the aforementioned matchup on Saturday, host Rice on Wednesday, and then finish the season at Memphis on Sunday. The Cougars likely have to win 2 of 3 down the stretch to get serious consideration from the Selection Committee. It wouldn’t hurt if one of those wins was on the road against Memphis.
• SMU has the third best scorer in the league (Bryan Hopkins) and the third best rebounder in the league (Devon Pearson). What about assists? Yeah, their leading assist man, Hopkins, is 16th in the conference at a less-than-impressive 2.9 per game. That could explain why they are 4-8 in the conference. Five teams have at least two players with more assists per game than Hopkins.
• While on the topic of SMU, too bad Bamba Fall is not much of a scorer or rebounder. The 7-1 freshman from Senegal leads C-USA in blocks at 3.2 per game. He has blocked at least four shots nine times this season.
• With all the turnovers UAB forces, it’s interesting to see that only one player (Squeaky Johnson) is in the Top 10 in the conference in steals.
• Only six players in the league shoot higher than 40% from three-point range. To put it in perspective, the Big East has 19 players shooting at that clip or better, while the 8-team Patriot League has the same amount as Conference USA.
• Props to Marshall’s Mark Patton on his 36-point, 13-rebound effort against SMU in an overtime win last week. He shot 13 of 17 from the floor, and, most importantly, he played 41 of 45 minutes.